Title : Post-pandemic rebound in suicide mortality in albania: Age-specific trends and ARIMA-based forecasts (2019–2026)

Background: Albania has historically been characterized by the “Balkan Paradox,” maintaining low suicide rates despite socio-economic transitions. However, the post-COVID-19 era introduced novel stressors that may have eroded traditional protective factors. This study investigates the shift in suicide mortality from 2000 to 2026.

Methods: I conducted a retrospective longitudinal analysis using WHO Global Health Observatory data (2000–2021) and INSTAT mortality records (2022–2025). Joinpoint regression was applied to identify significant changes in annual percent change (APC). Forecasting for 2026 was performed using an ARIMA (0,1,1) model. Bias assessment included adjustments for under-reporting, misclassification, and selection bias during pandemic years.

Results: The pre-pandemic baseline of 3.7 per 100,000 in 2019 (WHO GHO, 2025) escalated to a projected 5.2 per 100,000 by late 2026 (INSTAT, 2025). A disproportionate increase was identified in the elderly (70+, +42.4%) and youth (15–24, +34.8%) cohorts. Comparative analysis revealed Albania’s suicide rate remains lower than Montenegro (16.5) and North Macedonia (8.1), but the velocity of increase (+32.4%) is among the highest in the region.

Conclusion: The findings suggest a breakdown of Albania’s traditional familial and social buffers. Reporting bias remains a challenge but does not negate the upward trajectory. Immediate policy integration of geriatric mobile crisis units and digital resilience programs in schools is required to mitigate the projected rise.

Keywords: Suicide Mortality · Albania · Post-Pandemic · ARIMA Modeling · Joinpoint Regression · Geriatric Psychiatry · Youth Mental Health · Reporting Bias · Epidemiological Transition · Public Health Policy

Mirela Tushe is a dedicated nursing researcher with 36 years of professional experience spanning pediatrics, infectious diseases, ophthalmology, psychiatry, and pedagogy. She is currently a faculty member at Aldent University and a practicing nurse at the University Hospital Center Mother Teresa in Tirana, Albania. Her work focuses particularly on the assessment of mental health among youth in university settings and the crucial role of nurses in support and prevention. Throughout her career, she has actively participated in numerous national and international scientific activities, published multiple articles and books, and contributed to significant international projects related to nursing education, clinical practice, and mental health.